© 2024 Fidelity Investments Canada ULC. All rights reserved. Fidelity Investments is a registered trademark of Fidelity Investments Canada ULC.
|
FIDELITY CANADA INSTITUTIONALTM
|
Unconditional capital market assumptions: Harvesting centuries of asset history to build a robust view of the future
Irina Tytell, Head of Secular Research, Asset Allocation and Dirk Hofschire, Director of Asset Allocation Research, Fidelity Investments, assess a comprehensive set of asset class returns through the breadth of global history to inform long-term investment strategies.
Key highlights
- Our unconditional capital market assumptions (CMAs) provide the foundation for assessing asset returns over the long term and can be utilized to inform strategic portfolio management decisions, assess portfolio attributes such as expected returns, volatility, or diversification, and set expectations for investment outcomes.
- The unconditional CMAs represent our return expectations in a steady-state environment that is independent of current market conditions, complementing our secular CMAs that emphasize forward-looking expectations over a 20-year horizon and are linked to prevailing conditions.
- Our innovative approach is based on unique insights on why assets earn returns and draws on aggregated historical distributions of multi-country returns.
- While U.S. history is weighted heavily in our considerations, we also account for future scenarios in which 20th-century “U.S. exceptionalism” does not repeat itself perpetually.
- We expect that equity returns in the U.S. and other developed markets will be similar over long-term periods, that emerging market equities will earn an additional risk premium, and that short-term, cash-like investments will have a modest positive real return.
- Our analysis suggests lower long-term expected returns across most asset classes—including stocks and fixed-income securities—compared with returns in recent years.
To read more, download the full paper.
Share
Partager
Not your information? Reset form
Show LegalHide Legal
This site is persons in Canada only. Mutual funds sponsored by Fidelity Investments Canada ULc are only qualified for sale in the provinces and territories of Canada.
Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector are the views only of that individual as of the time expressed and do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization. Such views are subject to change at any time based upon markets and other conditions, and Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity Fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity Fund.
818423.0